Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Thursday 30 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 61618 (+2393) 1063351 (+28111) 147114 (+5207) 854619 (+20511)
Italy 27682 (+323) 203591 (+2086) 71252 (+2311) 104657 (-548)
United Kingdom 26097 (+4419) 165221 (+4076) 0 (+0) 139124 (-343)
Spain 24275 (+453) 236899 (+4771) 132929 (+9026) 79695 (-4708)
France 24087 (+427) 166420 (+509) 48228 (+1342) 94105 (-1260)
Belgium 7501 (+170) 47859 (+525) 11283 (+340) 29075 (+15)
Germany 6405 (+91) 161197 (+1285) 120400 (+3000) 34392 (-1806)
Iran 5957 (+80) 93657 (+1073) 73791 (+1352) 13909 (-359)
Brazil 5511 (+448) 79361 (+6462) 34132 (+1588) 39718 (+4426)
Netherlands 4711 (+145) 38802 (+386) 0 (+0) 34091 (+241)
China 4633 (+0) 82858 (+22) 77578 (+23) 647 (-1)
Turkey 3081 (+89) 117589 (+2936) 44040 (+5231) 70468 (-2384)
Canada 2996 (+137) 51597 (+1571) 20327 (+1137) 28274 (+297)
Sweden 2462 (+107) 20302 (+681) 1005 (+0) 16835 (+574)
Switzerland 1716 (+17) 29407 (+143) 22600 (+0) 5091 (+126)
Mexico 1569 (+135) 16752 (+1223) 11423 (+2337) 3760 (-1249)
Ireland 1190 (+31) 20253 (+376) 13386 (+4153) 5677 (-3808)
India 1079 (+71) 33062 (+1702) 8437 (+690) 23546 (+941)
Portugal 973 (+25) 24505 (+183) 1470 (+81) 22062 (+77)
Russia 972 (+105) 99399 (+5841) 10286 (+1830) 88141 (+3906)
Peru 943 (+89) 33931 (+2741) 10037 (+858) 22951 (+1794)
Ecuador 871 (+0) 24258 (+0) 1557 (+0) 21830 (+0)
Indonesia 784 (+11) 9771 (+260) 1391 (+137) 7596 (+112)
Romania 693 (+30) 11978 (+362) 3569 (+165) 7716 (+167)
Poland 624 (+28) 12640 (+422) 3025 (+370) 8991 (+24)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 223261 (+10131) 3133495 (+80436) 921045 (+46204)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 217815 ( +3267) 3046163 ( +39446) 918097 ( +28154)
Fri 01 May 2020 220784 ( +2969) 3082282 ( +36118) 944787 ( +26690)
Sat 02 May 2020 223475 ( +2691) 3115274 ( +32993) 969967 ( +25180)
Sun 03 May 2020 225906 ( +2432) 3145346 ( +30072) 993614 ( +23647)
Mon 04 May 2020 228099 ( +2192) 3172702 ( +27355) 1015726 ( +22112)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 4633 (+0) 82858 (+22) 77578 (+23)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 3759 ( +0) 81557 ( +0) 76860 ( +3)
Fri 01 May 2020 3759 ( +0) 81557 ( +0) 76862 ( +2)
Sat 02 May 2020 3759 ( +0) 81557 ( +0) 76864 ( +2)
Sun 03 May 2020 3760 ( +0) 81557 ( +0) 76866 ( +2)
Mon 04 May 2020 3760 ( +0) 81557 ( +0) 76867 ( +2)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 24275 (+453) 236899 (+4771) 132929 (+9026)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 22989 ( +74) 222696 ( +850) 120176 ( +2404)
Fri 01 May 2020 23054 ( +64) 223444 ( +747) 122409 ( +2232)
Sat 02 May 2020 23109 ( +55) 224100 ( +656) 124474 ( +2066)
Sun 03 May 2020 23156 ( +48) 224675 ( +576) 126380 ( +1905)
Mon 04 May 2020 23197 ( +41) 225180 ( +505) 128132 ( +1752)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 27682 (+323) 203591 (+2086) 71252 (+2311)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 26549 ( +118) 195007 ( +700) 72047 ( +1875)
Fri 01 May 2020 26655 ( +105) 195635 ( +628) 73848 ( +1802)
Sat 02 May 2020 26749 ( +94) 196198 ( +563) 75574 ( +1726)
Sun 03 May 2020 26833 ( +84) 196702 ( +504) 77222 ( +1648)
Mon 04 May 2020 26907 ( +75) 197153 ( +451) 78791 ( +1569)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 26097 (+4419) 165221 (+4076) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 22803 ( +333) 162363 ( +2241) nan ( +nan)
Fri 01 May 2020 23098 ( +295) 164376 ( +2013) nan ( +nan)
Sat 02 May 2020 23357 ( +259) 166179 ( +1802) nan ( +nan)
Sun 03 May 2020 23585 ( +228) 167788 ( +1609) nan ( +nan)
Mon 04 May 2020 23784 ( +199) 169222 ( +1434) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 61618 (+2393) 1063351 (+28111) 147114 (+5207)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 60966 ( +1057) 1029986 ( +13066) 157023 ( +9045)
Fri 01 May 2020 61896 ( +930) 1041725 ( +11740) 166015 ( +8992)
Sat 02 May 2020 62709 ( +814) 1052245 ( +10519) 174890 ( +8875)
Sun 03 May 2020 63419 ( +710) 1061648 ( +9403) 183586 ( +8697)
Mon 04 May 2020 64036 ( +617) 1070034 ( +8387) 192049 ( +8462)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 24087 (+427) 166420 (+509) 48228 (+1342)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 23438 ( +129) 164421 ( +316) 60202 ( +3300)
Fri 01 May 2020 23548 ( +110) 164687 ( +266) 63694 ( +3492)
Sat 02 May 2020 23642 ( +94) 164910 ( +223) 67388 ( +3694)
Sun 03 May 2020 23722 ( +80) 165097 ( +187) 71297 ( +3909)
Mon 04 May 2020 23789 ( +68) 165254 ( +157) 75432 ( +4135)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 6405 (+91) 161197 (+1285) 120400 (+3000)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 6345 ( +79) 155535 ( +327) 117387 ( +1232)
Fri 01 May 2020 6415 ( +70) 155817 ( +282) 118463 ( +1076)
Sat 02 May 2020 6477 ( +62) 156060 ( +243) 119400 ( +937)
Sun 03 May 2020 6531 ( +54) 156269 ( +209) 120213 ( +814)
Mon 04 May 2020 6578 ( +47) 156449 ( +180) 120919 ( +705)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 4711 (+145) 38802 (+386) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 4572 ( +38) 38593 ( +304) 180 ( +0)
Fri 01 May 2020 4605 ( +33) 38866 ( +273) 180 ( +0)
Sat 02 May 2020 4635 ( +29) 39111 ( +245) 180 ( +0)
Sun 03 May 2020 4660 ( +26) 39330 ( +219) 180 ( +0)
Mon 04 May 2020 4683 ( +23) 39525 ( +196) 180 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 7501 (+170) 47859 (+525) 11283 (+340)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 7380 ( +69) 47285 ( +412) 10954 ( +97)
Fri 01 May 2020 7439 ( +59) 47653 ( +368) 11039 ( +85)
Sat 02 May 2020 7490 ( +50) 47981 ( +328) 11113 ( +74)
Sun 03 May 2020 7533 ( +43) 48272 ( +292) 11177 ( +65)
Mon 04 May 2020 7569 ( +36) 48532 ( +259) 11234 ( +56)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 2462 (+107) 20302 (+681) 1005 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 2472 ( +52) 20132 ( +386) 1079 ( +50)
Fri 01 May 2020 2519 ( +47) 20494 ( +363) 1128 ( +49)
Sat 02 May 2020 2562 ( +42) 20834 ( +340) 1176 ( +48)
Sun 03 May 2020 2599 ( +38) 21151 ( +317) 1224 ( +47)
Mon 04 May 2020 2633 ( +34) 21447 ( +296) 1269 ( +46)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 624 (+28) 12640 (+422) 3025 (+370)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 613 ( +16) 12283 ( +167) 3152 ( +213)
Fri 01 May 2020 627 ( +14) 12434 ( +151) 3361 ( +209)
Sat 02 May 2020 640 ( +13) 12570 ( +136) 3563 ( +202)
Sun 03 May 2020 652 ( +12) 12693 ( +123) 3756 ( +193)
Mon 04 May 2020 663 ( +11) 12803 ( +110) 3939 ( +183)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 1716 (+17) 29407 (+143) 22600 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 1657 ( +10) 28538 ( +30) 22169 ( +139)
Fri 01 May 2020 1666 ( +8) 28564 ( +26) 22286 ( +118)
Sat 02 May 2020 1673 ( +7) 28586 ( +22) 22386 ( +100)
Sun 03 May 2020 1679 ( +6) 28604 ( +19) 22470 ( +84)
Mon 04 May 2020 1685 ( +6) 28620 ( +16) 22542 ( +71)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 5957 (+80) 93657 (+1073) 73791 (+1352)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 30 April 2020 5713 ( +26) 91727 ( +455) 74779 ( +1030)
Fri 01 May 2020 5737 ( +24) 92139 ( +412) 75719 ( +939)
Sat 02 May 2020 5758 ( +21) 92512 ( +373) 76573 ( +854)
Sun 03 May 2020 5777 ( +19) 92849 ( +337) 77348 ( +775)
Mon 04 May 2020 5795 ( +17) 93153 ( +304) 78049 ( +701)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.